By David F. Hendry
A textual content on econometric modeling in economics, reading a number of the conflicting tools in use at the present time, reviewing the advantages and downsides of every. makes use of empirical purposes, Monte Carlo simulations, and theoretical and econometric analyses to figure out top perform as regards the competing techniques. Softcover.
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Extra resources for Econometrics: Alchemy or science
1) where is a vector of endogenous variables, is a vector of all relevant past and present information (so that where denotes the expectations operator) and denotes a variate that is normally and independently distributed, with a mean of μ and a covariance matrix of . The parameter matrix is taken as approximately constant by working in a sufﬁciently large (but assumed ﬁnite) dimensional parameter space. Normality is a convenient ﬁction which restricts attention to sample information in the ﬁrst two moments of the data, and independence of successive observations is achieved by construction.
Yet a further implication of these data is that the recession manifest in the current high level of unemployment may be due in part to the implicit government surplus with the public sector borrowing requirement (PSBR) being a mere monetary epiphenomenon. The facts in this last conjecture are fairly well established, although the interpretation and policy implications may not be unique. For my purposes, the conjecture need not even be correct since my point is that attempts to reduce the PSBR in the belief that it is a ‘cause’ of inﬂation rather than a ‘consequence’ of recession will impose major costs on society if that belief is mistaken.
Oh that econometrics had such alchemists as Newton! Again the issue is one of timing since Maynard Keynes, despite his trenchant criticisms, does not liken econometrics to a theoryless reading of entrails as some seem to believe. (For a fuller discussion of Keynes's views on econometrics, see Patinkin, 1976). Notwithstanding Keynes's comments, Tinbergen was later joint recipient of the ﬁrst Nobel Prize in economics. An echo of this debate recurs in the early 1970s. For example, following a sharp critique of mathematical economics as having ‘no links with concrete facts’.
Econometrics: Alchemy or science by David F. Hendry