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By OECD

ISBN-10: 926410982X

ISBN-13: 9789264109827

ISBN-10: 9264109838

ISBN-13: 9789264109834

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However, after 1990, the rate of reduction slowed considerably and averaged only 1% per year through to 2003, or less than half the rate between 1973 and 1990. In the OECD, this slower rate of final energy intensity reduction continues in the Baseline Scenario. 7% per year. The 8. There are only small differences in final energy per GDP across the ACT scenarios; the Map scenario is thus used to illustrate the results in all ACT scenarios in this section.

Increased use of renewables in power generation contributes 9% of the reduction in the Map scenario and 16% in the No CCS scenario. Assuming more modest cost declines for renewables, as in the Low Renewables scenario, means the share of reductions from renewable generation technologies falls to 5%. 3 Reduction in CO2 emissions in the Map scenario by technology area (share of reduction below Baseline Scenario in 2050) Coal to gas 5% Nuclear 6% End-use efficiency 45% Power generation 34% Biofuels in transport 6% Fuel mix in buildings and industry 7% CCS in industry 5% CCS in fuel transformation 3% Fossil fuel generation efficiency 1% CCS 12% Hydropower 2% Biomass 2% Other renewables 6% Key point Improved efficiency of end-use technologies contributes 45% of the reduction in CO2 emissions.

4 CO2 emissions by region in the Baseline, Map and No CCS scenarios, 2003 and 2050 Baseline Scenario ACT Scenarios Map 2050 (Mt CO2) (Mt CO2) Map No CCS Reduction below Baseline Scenario in 2050 (Mt CO2) (Mt CO2) (%) (%) ...................... 2003 No CCS OECD 12 969 21 949 8 772 9 943 –60 –55 Transition economies 2 543 3 953 2 283 2 734 –42 –31 Developing countries 9 020 32 120 14 913 17 021 –54 –47 ................................................................................................................

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Energy Technology Perspectives: Scenarios And Strategies to 2050 by OECD


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