By Pavlos Karadeloglou, Virginie Terraza (eds.)
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Additional info for Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Dynamics
However, as we have argued, the stylised facts suggest that the kind of goods entering international trade are imperfect substitutes and not perfect substitutes as suggested in the LOOP. Additionally, the LOOP relies crucially on the activity of arbitrage. But who carries out such arbitrage? 'I1amics advantage of price differences when they travel internationally, this will only have a very limited, if any, effect on the equalisation of goods prices across countries. Wholesalers seem a more natural unit to take advantage of price differences across countries.
Tn the complete pass-through case, Monacelli (2004) shows that in moving from fixed to flexible exchange rates there is a proportional rise in the volatility of the nominal exchange rate which is coupled with a rise in the real exchange rate which roughly mimics what we observe in the data and the interest rate smoothing objective is crucial in generating this result. Furthermore, the close correlation between real and nominal exchange rates in a flexible rate regime is mimicked in this model and these results are robust with respect to the sources of 42 Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Dynamics the underlying shocks.
30) shows that the risk premium arises from the covariance hetween the nominal exchange rate and the marginal utility of consumption. When the next period's covariance between s and /lc,t+1 is high, the foreign bond tends to pay a high (low) real return when the marginal utility of consumption is also high (low). The foreign bond is therefore more risky to the home agent the lower is cov(St+ v/lc,t+ 1)' The key prediction of the model is that new information which results in agents revising their perceptions of the risk premium can produce exchange rate volatility without there being any changes in the current macroeconomic variables.
Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Dynamics by Pavlos Karadeloglou, Virginie Terraza (eds.)