Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and - download pdf or read online

By National Research Council

ISBN-10: 0309070899

ISBN-13: 9780309070898

ISBN-10: 0309514916

ISBN-13: 9780309514910

This record is the precis of a workshop carried out through the nationwide study Council in an effort to study from either forecast makers and forecast clients approximately advancements that may be made in knowing the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers tested: the background and issues of versions of call for and provide for scientists and engineers; goals and ways to forecasting versions; margins of adjustment which have been missed in versions, in particular substitution and caliber; the presentation of uncertainty; and even if those forecasts of offer and insist are necessary, given all their shortcomings. the focal point of the record used to be to supply counsel to the NSF and to students during this sector on how versions and the forecasts derived from them may be enhanced, and what position NSF should still play of their development. additionally, the document tested problems with reporting forecasts to policymakers.

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The goal is to discover the most convincing ways to display forecast results so the audience understands that forecasting models are a useful tool in the policy formation process, but have limitations in accuracy that affect how they should be interpreted and used. 48 C H A P T E R 6 Summary and Recommendations Summary T he committee was charged to make recommendations on the government’s optimal role in forecasting the supply and demand of scientists and engineers, and in particular whether NSF itself should be involved in forecasting and related activities such as data collection.

Who are the clients for forecasts of demand and supply of doctoral scientists and engineers, and what is it that they really need and want? Two primary groups have been identified: (1) students who are deciding on careers and (2) funding agencies, such as NSF and NIH, that must decide how to allocate funds for traineeships and research assistantships. Other clients include universities that face decisions on the size of research and teaching programs and faculty recruitment and members of Congress who make policy decisions that affect research and the labor market.

Other important exogenous variables, like the distribution of preferences of future college students for scientific versus other careers and future technological changes that might affect the demand for scientific personnel are inherently unpredictable. Further, there are important substantive issues involving, among other things, the heterogeneity of labor input within scientific fields and the substitution among groups of inputs with different quality/qualifications. These factors could drastically affect market forecasts and are not satisfactorily understood.

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Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers (Compass Series) by National Research Council


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