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External balances tend to move toward deficit and leverage tends to rise. If all this sounds like Asia in the 5-10 years leading up to the financial crisis of 1997/98 to you, it does to us too. It is a scenario (see stylized chart below) we have envisioned for more than a year now and in fact discussed here briefly a year ago (HH13). ” 2011 Asia Equity Outlook The Year of the Rabbit Asia has spent the past ten years deleveraging and paying down the debt that was built up in the 1900s (Period 2 below).
Until recently, reserves have been languishing at post-crisis lows during this recovery. Despite strong current account surpluses, the capital and financial account (CFA) remained in deficits. It was, therefore, significant in 2Q10, that the CFA reported its first surplus since 1Q08. Based on the capital inflows reported into local ringgit bonds and the Malaysian stock index hitting its precrisis high, the CFA surplus is likely to be stronger in 2Q10. 1bn in Aug10. Looking ahead, Malaysia is expected to hold general elections in 2011.
Thus Asia seems well placed to endure a multi-year period of releveraging. – Period 3 in the chart below – even while growth in the G3 (US, JP, EU) is expected to be sub-par. The question of course is: will it all end the way did in 1997/98? We think not. First of all, we have argued that Asia-vu: back to the 90s Asian financial crisis US financial crisis Period 1 Period 2 Capital inflow Current acct deficits Rising leverage Rising external debt Rapid fixed capital form'n Above-avg GDP growth Capital outflow Current acct surpluses De-leveraging Repaying external debt Paltry fixed capital form'n Below-avg GDP growth 1987 1997 The other reason that the endgame is likely to be different this time is that Asia’s policymakers still have the experience of 1997/98 engraved in their minds and are very reluctant to move toward anything that smacks of the 90s.
strategy 2011 by DBS securities